There is a continued large-scale need for investment to develop a total of 670 billion barrels of new resources to 2040, mostly to make up for declines at existing fields rather than to meet the increase in demand. By the mid-2020s, the United States become the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter and a few years later a net exporter of oil – still a major importer of heavier crudes that suit the configuration of its refineries, but a larger exporter of light crude and refined products. Stepping up action to tackle methane leaks along the oil and gas value chain is essential to bolster the environmental case for gas: these emissions are not the only anthropogenic emissions of methane, but they are likely to be among the cheapest to abate. The new gas order can bring dividends for gas security, although there is the risk of a hard landing for gas markets in the 2020s if uncertainty over the pace or direction of change deters new investments. China remains a towering presence in coal markets, but our projections suggest that coal use peaked in 2013 and is set to decline by almost 15% over the period to 2040. Energy efficiency regulation explains a large part of this slowdown. Electricity makes inroads in supplying heat and mobility, alongside growth in its traditional domains, allowing its share of final consumption to rise to nearly a quarter. With the United States accounting for 80% of the increase in global oil supply to 2025 and maintaining near-term downward pressure on prices, the world’s consumers are not yet ready to say goodbye to the era of oil. Worldwide emissions from the power sector are limited to a 5% increase between now and 2040, even though electricity demand grows by 60% and global GDP by 125%. Four large-scale shifts in the global energy system set the scene for the World Energy Outlook 2017: the rapid deployment and falling costs of clean energy technologies, the growing electrification of energy, the shift to a more services-oriented economy and a cleaner energy mix in China, and the resilience of shale gas and tight oil in the United States. The publication is a means to highlight and further the understanding of the many possible future challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for the oil industry. This reflects the fact that gas looks a good fit for policy priorities in this region, generating heat, power and mobility with fewer carbon-dioxide (CO2) and pollutant emissions than other fossil fuels, helping to address widespread concerns over air quality. Compared with the past twenty-five years, the way that the world meets its growing energy needs changes dramatically in the New Policies Scenario, with the lead now taken by natural gas, by the rapid rise of renewables and by energy efficiency. In Brazil, the share of direct and indirect renewable use in final energy consumption rises from 39% today to 45% in 2040, compared with a global progression from 9% to 16% over the same period. These changes provide the backdrop for the World Energy Outlook 2017, which includes a full update of energy demand and supply projections to 2040 based on different scenarios. Implementing these measures in the New Policies Scenario would have the same impact on reducing the average global surface temperature rise in 2100 as shutting all existing coal-fired power plants in China. © 2011-2020 IRENA - International Renewable Energy Agency. Your participation in such surveys shall be subject to any applicable terms and conditions as shall be communicated to you. A strengthening tide of industry initiatives and policy support pushes our projection for the global electric car fleet up to 280 million by 2040, from 2 million today. Ensuring that gas remains affordable and secure, beyond the current period of ample supply and lower prices, is critical for its long-term prospects. Despite their recent flattening, global energy-related CO2 emissions increase slightly to 2040 in the New Policies Scenario. Summarized, there are four key indicators that clearly can fuel the market toward an equilibrium, or even a situation with demand outpacing supply for periods of time,” says Lindberg. Securing clear climate benefits from gas use depends on credible action to minimise leaks of methane – a potent greenhouse gas – to the atmosphere. All of these are achieved in the SDS, putting global emissions on track for net The direct use of renewables to provide heat and mobility worldwide also doubles, albeit from a low base. Ageing populations in many industrialised societies become more vulnerable to the effects of air pollution and urbanisation can also increase exposure to pollutants from traffic. However, the speed of change in the power sector is not matched elsewhere: CO2 emissions from oil use in transport almost catch up with those from coal-fired power plants (which are flat) by 2040, and there is also a 20% rise in emissions from industry. The 2030 targets for renewables and efficiency that are defined in the Sustainable Development agenda are met or exceeded in this scenario; renewables and efficiency are the key mechanisms to drive forward the low-carbon transition and reduce pollutant emissions. But stringent fuel-efficiency measures for cars and trucks, and a shift which sees one-in-four cars being electric by 2040, means that China is no longer the main driving force behind global oil use – demand growth is larger in India post-2025. Promising outlook for 2021 “The outlook for 2021 is promising in terms of market robustness. Along with a favourable assumption about the ability of the main oil-producing regions to weather the storm of lower hydrocarbon revenues, this is enough to keep prices within a $50-70/barrel range to 2040. Improvements in efficiency play a huge role in taking the strain off the supply side: without them, the projected rise in final energy use would more than double. All Rights Reserved. The provision of highly efficient appliances, combined with decentralised renewables, also play a major role in extending full access to electricity and clean cooking, especially in rural communities and isolated settlements that are hard to reach with the grid. World Energy Outlook 2019 explores these widening fractures in detail. A key finding is that universal access to electricity and clean cooking can be reached without making this task any more challenging. In the United States, plentiful supplies maintain a strong share of gas-fired power in electricity generation through to 2040, even without national policies limiting the use of coal. ISBN : 978-92-9260-334-2: Download. Southeast Asia is another rising heavyweight in global energy, with demand growing at twice the pace of China. The contribution of gas varies widely across regions, between sectors and over time in this scenario. In the New Policies Scenario, global energy needs rise more slowly than in the past but still expand by 30% between today and 2040. In February 2021, it estimated stocks dropped by 62 million barrels to end at 2.955 billion, 80 million barrels higher than a … * The designations employed and the presentation of materials herein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Renewable Energy Agency concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. A 630 bcm increase in US shale gas production over the 15 years from 2008 would comfortably exceed the previous record for gas. Efficiency policies also play a part in constraining gas use: while the electricity generated from gas grows by more than half to 2040, related gas use rises by only one-third, due to more reliance on highly efficient plants. Central to these outcomes is the achievement of an early peak in CO2 emissions and a subsequent rapid decline, consistent with the Paris Agreement. The World Energy Transitions Outlook preview outlines a pathway for the world to achieve the Paris Agreement goals and halt the pace of climate change by transforming the global energy landscape. By providing this information, you agree that IRENA may contact you from time to time, including to provide you with surveys. Over the longer term, a larger and more liquid LNG market can compensate for reduced flexibility elsewhere in the energy system (for example, lower fuel-switching capacity in some countries as coal-fired generation is retired). Progress in India and Indonesia has been particularly impressive, and in sub-Saharan Africa electrification efforts outpaced population growth for the first time in 2014. Meanwhile, with projected demand growth appearing robust, at least for the near term, a third straight year in 2017 of low investment in new conventional projects remains a worrying indicator for the future market balance, creating a substantial risk of a shortfall of new supply in the 2020s. European Union Can Meet Ambitious Renewable Energy Targets, 12 January 2018 | Statistical Review of World Energy pdf / 7.2 MB Statistical Review of World Energy – all data, 1965-2019 xlsx / 2.9 MB All other downloads Energy developments Primary energy consumption growth slowed to 1.3% last year, less than half the rate of growth in 2018 (2.8%). Premature deaths worldwide from outdoor air pollution rise from 3 million today to more than 4 million in 2040 in the New Policies Scenario, even though pollution control technologies are applied more widely and other emissions are avoided because energy services are provided more efficiently or (as with wind and solar) without fuel combustion. It explains the impact of today’s decisions on tomorrow’s energy systems, and describes a pathway that enables the world to meet climate, energy access and air quality goals while maintaining a strong focus on the reliability and affordability of energy for a growing global population. The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for March, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely peaked at 3.210 billion in July 2020. In anticipation of the coming energy transition, financial markets and investors are already directing capital away from fossil fuels and towards other energy technologies including renewables. Even with a rapid transformation of the passenger car fleet, reaching a peak in global demand would require stronger policy action in other sectors. In China, CO2 emissions are projected to plateau at 9.2 Gt (only slightly above current levels) by 2030 before starting to fall back. We explore this possibility in a Low Oil Price Case, in which a doubling of the estimate for tight oil resources, to more than 200 billion barrels, boosts US supply and more widespread application of digital technologies helps to keep a lid on upstream costs around the globe. Even greater upside for US tight oil and a more rapid switch to electric cars would keep oil prices lower for longer. IRENA will make its best efforts to protect the confidentiality of this information, although does not warrant the confidentiality or security of such information. Projected 2040 emissions in the New Policies Scenario are lower by 600 million tonnes than in last year’s Outlook (35.7 gigatonnes [Gt] versus 36.3 Gt). In the Sustainable Development Scenario, low-carbon sources double their share in the energy mix to 40% in 2040, all avenues to improve efficiency are pursued, coal demand goes into an immediate decline and oil consumption peaks soon thereafter. 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